针对在役飞机结构腐蚀检修数据样本量小且随机波动性大的特点，首先基于灰色理论建立遭受腐蚀损伤的飞机结构使用寿命预测模型。其次为提高模型预测精度，引入马氏链转移方程对残差进行修正，得到飞机结构腐蚀寿命的灰色马氏链预测模型。最后对收集的某航空公司经典机型机队11架飞机后货舱隔框结构的腐蚀检修数据进行算例分析。预测结果表明:这类隔框结构在机龄约为15 a时达到2级腐蚀状态，使用寿命相应终止。按结构维修手册要求需对其进行更换,经过残差修正的灰色马氏链预测值与实际值的平均相对误差为0.44%，明显低于未修正的灰色预测平均相对误差1.64%，达到工程问题的预测精度要求，而且预测结果与民航飞机结构腐蚀维修经验基本吻合，说明所建模型可用于腐蚀条件下的在役飞机结构寿命预测。

Due to the limited sample sizes and random fluctuations of actual structure corrosion data of aircrafts in service, a lifetime prediction model of corroded aircraft structure was built based on grey theory. A Markov transfer equation was introduced to modify the residual error in order to improve the prediction accuracy of above model. The corrosion maintenance data of frame structure in cargo of a fleet containing 11 aircrafts with same classic type were collected to make the numerical analysis. The results show that the frame structure should be replaced according to the maintenance manuals because it will reach the second corrosion state in the age of 15 years, which means this kind of frame structure will be failure. The average relative error between predicted value of improved grey Markov model and actual value is 0.44%, obviously lower than that of uncorrected gery model 1.64%, and meets the requirements of engineering accuracy. Moreover, the predicted result bsaed on the model conforms to the actual outcomes of aircraft frame structure in civil aviation, which indicates that proposed model can be used to predict the lifetime for aircraft structure in service in corrosion environment.