Dynamic Quantitative Assessment of Pipeline Based on External Corrosion Rate
摘 要
通过大量文献调研对目前管道风险评价中常用的三种方法——定性分析、半定量分析和定量分析进行了详细的阐述,并针对由于管道外腐蚀引起失效的评价问题提出了相应的模型和方法。结果表明:在定性评价和半定量评价中,过多地依赖历史数据库和工程经验,使得管道风险评价具有明显的局限性和主观性;而对于定量评价来说,只着重考虑“高危险”因素带来的风险,且缺少基础评价模型和动态评价模型,使得管道定量评价无法从全影响因素的角度考虑管道的潜在经济损失。随着管道完整性及管道大数据技术的推进,其全因素定量风险评价成为了可能,但这也对数据对齐、数据筛选以及数据处理等相关的方法和模型的研究提出了更高的要求。
Abstract
Through a large number of literature investigations, three methods commonly used in pipeline risk assessment (qualitative analysis, semi-quantitative analysis and quantitative analysis) were elaborated in detail, and corresponding models and methods were proposed for the evaluation of failures caused by external corrosion of pipelines. The results show that qualitative evaluation and semi-quantitative evaluation relied too much on historical database and engineering experience, which made pipeline risk assessment have obvious limitations and subjectivity. The quantitative evaluation only focuses on the risk caused by the "high risk" factor, and lacks the basic evaluation model and dynamic evaluation model, so that the quantitative evaluation of pipelines could not consider the potential economic loss of pipelines from the perspective of all-influence factors. With the advancement of pipeline integrity and pipeline big data technology, its full-factor quantitative risk assessment becomes possible, but it also puts forward higher requirements for data alignment, data screening, data processing and other related methods and models.
中图分类号 TE8 DOI 10.11973/fsyfh-201811011
所属栏目 应用技术
基金项目 高等职业院校专业能力建设(骨干专业)项目(2016150)
收稿日期 2018/7/30
修改稿日期
网络出版日期
作者单位点击查看
联系人作者鲁群岷(luqm@qq.com)
引用该论文: YUE Bo,LU Qunmin. Dynamic Quantitative Assessment of Pipeline Based on External Corrosion Rate[J]. Corrosion & Protection, 2018, 39(11): 867
共有人对该论文发表了看法,其中:
人认为该论文很差
人认为该论文较差
人认为该论文一般
人认为该论文较好
人认为该论文很好
参考文献
【1】韩雪梅. 油气集输管线风险评估及检测技术研究[D]. 青岛:中国石油大学(华东),2014.
【2】韩丽艳. 西部输气管道风险评价技术研究[D]. 大庆:东北石油大学,2014.
【3】李建华. 基于故障树分析的长输管道定量风险评价方法研究[D]. 兰州:兰州理工大学,2008.
【4】HE J,ZHANG L J,TAO G,et al. Quantitative fire risk assessment of gas pipeline leakage[J]. Applied Mechanics & Materials,2014,635:402-406.
【5】LU J,WANG Y N,ZHENG Y Y,et al. Inspection and assessment of urban gas pipeline based on risk analysis[J]. Applied Mechanics & Materials,2014,501-504:2386-2391.
【6】王其磊,程五一,张丽丽,等. 管道量化风险评价技术与应用实例[J]. 油气储运,2011,30(7):494-496.
【7】潘家华. 油气管道的风险分析(待续)[J]. 油气储运,1995,14(3):11-15.
【8】周代军. 城市燃气管网定量风险评价指标体系的研究[D]. 成都:西南石油大学,2012.
【9】CALEYO F,VALOR A,ALFONSO L,et al. Bayesian analysis of external corrosion data of non-piggable underground pipelines[J]. Corrosion Science,2015,90:33-45.
【10】MOHAMMAD A. Bayesian analyses of metal-loss corrosion on energy pipelines[D]. Ontario:Western University,2012.
【11】MELCHERS R E,JEFFREY R J. Probabilistic models for steel corrosion loss and pitting of marine infrastructure[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2008,93(3):423-432.
【12】BISAGGIO H D C,NETTO T A. Predictive analyses of the integrity of corroded pipelines based on concepts of structural reliability and bayesian inference[J]. Marine Structures,2015,41:180-199.
【13】LEIRA B J,ARVID N,OLE E,et al. Reliability analysis of corroding pipelines by enhanced monte carlo simulation[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2016,123:11-17.
【14】YANG Y S,KHAN F,THODI P,et al. Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2017,159:214-222.
【15】陈丽琼. 在役油气长输管线定量风险技术研究[D]. 成都:西南石油学院,2004.
【16】代利明,陈玉明. 几种常用定量风险评价方法的比较[J]. 安全与环境工程,2006,13(4):95-98.
【17】张范辉. 油气长输管道风险评价研究[D]. 青岛:中国海洋大学,2008.
【18】姜永明,吴明,陈旭,等. 某油田埋地管道土壤腐蚀的灰色关联分析[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2011,32(7):564-566.
【19】蒋宏业,姚安林,蒋常春,等. 基于AHP的埋地输气管道腐蚀风险评价[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2011,32(2):121-124.
【20】VICTORIA B M,DIEGO A,GONZALO B. A fuzzy logic method:predicting pipeline external corrosion rate[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2018,163:55-62.
【21】LI X,XIE F,WANG D,et al. Effect of residual and external stress on corrosion behaviour of X80 pipeline steel in sulphate-reducing bacteria environment[J]. Engineering Failure Analysis,2018,91:275-290.
【22】ALABBAS F M,WILLIAMSON C,BHOLA S M,et al. Microbial corrosion in linepipe steel under the influence of a sulfate-reducing consortium isolated from an oil field[J]. Journal of Materials Engineering and Performance,2013,22:3517-3529.
【23】唐红雁,宋光铃,曹楚南,等. 用极化曲线评价钢铁材料土壤腐蚀行为的研究[J]. 腐蚀科学与防护技术,1995,7(4):285-292.
【24】寇杰,付禹. 交流杂散电流密度对X80管线钢腐蚀行为的影响[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2018,39(2):124-128.
【25】XU L Y,SU X,CHENG Y F. Effect of alternating current on cathodic protection on pipelines[J]. Corrosion Science,2013,66:263-268.
【26】FU A Q,CHENG Y F. Effect of alternating current on corrosion and effectiveness of cathodic protection of pipelines[J]. Canadian Metallurgical Quarterly,2013,51:81-90.
【27】DAI M,LIU J,HUANG F,et al. Effect of cathodic protection potential fluctuations on pitting corrosion of X100 pipeline steel in acidic soil environment[J]. Corrosion Science,2018(8):40.
【28】VANAEI H R,ESLAMI A,EGBEWANDE A. A review on pipeline corrosion,in-line inspection (ILI),and corrosion growth rate models[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2017,149:43-54.
【29】封琼,张亚萍,汪洋,等. 基于埋地金属管道杂散电流的腐蚀与防护[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2017,38(2):91-95.
【30】张华兵. 基于失效库的在役天然气长输管道定量风险评价技术研究[D]. 北京:中国地质大学(北京),2013.
【31】MADSEN H O,KRENK S. Method of structural safety[M]. New Jersey:Englewood Cliffs Prentice Hall,1986.
【32】赵志峰. 长输管道腐蚀防护系统安全性动态评价方法研究[D]. 西安:西安科技大学,2017.
【33】张余,董绍华. 管道完整性管理的发展与腐蚀案例分析[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2012,33:125-130.
【2】韩丽艳. 西部输气管道风险评价技术研究[D]. 大庆:东北石油大学,2014.
【3】李建华. 基于故障树分析的长输管道定量风险评价方法研究[D]. 兰州:兰州理工大学,2008.
【4】HE J,ZHANG L J,TAO G,et al. Quantitative fire risk assessment of gas pipeline leakage[J]. Applied Mechanics & Materials,2014,635:402-406.
【5】LU J,WANG Y N,ZHENG Y Y,et al. Inspection and assessment of urban gas pipeline based on risk analysis[J]. Applied Mechanics & Materials,2014,501-504:2386-2391.
【6】王其磊,程五一,张丽丽,等. 管道量化风险评价技术与应用实例[J]. 油气储运,2011,30(7):494-496.
【7】潘家华. 油气管道的风险分析(待续)[J]. 油气储运,1995,14(3):11-15.
【8】周代军. 城市燃气管网定量风险评价指标体系的研究[D]. 成都:西南石油大学,2012.
【9】CALEYO F,VALOR A,ALFONSO L,et al. Bayesian analysis of external corrosion data of non-piggable underground pipelines[J]. Corrosion Science,2015,90:33-45.
【10】MOHAMMAD A. Bayesian analyses of metal-loss corrosion on energy pipelines[D]. Ontario:Western University,2012.
【11】MELCHERS R E,JEFFREY R J. Probabilistic models for steel corrosion loss and pitting of marine infrastructure[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2008,93(3):423-432.
【12】BISAGGIO H D C,NETTO T A. Predictive analyses of the integrity of corroded pipelines based on concepts of structural reliability and bayesian inference[J]. Marine Structures,2015,41:180-199.
【13】LEIRA B J,ARVID N,OLE E,et al. Reliability analysis of corroding pipelines by enhanced monte carlo simulation[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2016,123:11-17.
【14】YANG Y S,KHAN F,THODI P,et al. Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2017,159:214-222.
【15】陈丽琼. 在役油气长输管线定量风险技术研究[D]. 成都:西南石油学院,2004.
【16】代利明,陈玉明. 几种常用定量风险评价方法的比较[J]. 安全与环境工程,2006,13(4):95-98.
【17】张范辉. 油气长输管道风险评价研究[D]. 青岛:中国海洋大学,2008.
【18】姜永明,吴明,陈旭,等. 某油田埋地管道土壤腐蚀的灰色关联分析[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2011,32(7):564-566.
【19】蒋宏业,姚安林,蒋常春,等. 基于AHP的埋地输气管道腐蚀风险评价[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2011,32(2):121-124.
【20】VICTORIA B M,DIEGO A,GONZALO B. A fuzzy logic method:predicting pipeline external corrosion rate[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2018,163:55-62.
【21】LI X,XIE F,WANG D,et al. Effect of residual and external stress on corrosion behaviour of X80 pipeline steel in sulphate-reducing bacteria environment[J]. Engineering Failure Analysis,2018,91:275-290.
【22】ALABBAS F M,WILLIAMSON C,BHOLA S M,et al. Microbial corrosion in linepipe steel under the influence of a sulfate-reducing consortium isolated from an oil field[J]. Journal of Materials Engineering and Performance,2013,22:3517-3529.
【23】唐红雁,宋光铃,曹楚南,等. 用极化曲线评价钢铁材料土壤腐蚀行为的研究[J]. 腐蚀科学与防护技术,1995,7(4):285-292.
【24】寇杰,付禹. 交流杂散电流密度对X80管线钢腐蚀行为的影响[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2018,39(2):124-128.
【25】XU L Y,SU X,CHENG Y F. Effect of alternating current on cathodic protection on pipelines[J]. Corrosion Science,2013,66:263-268.
【26】FU A Q,CHENG Y F. Effect of alternating current on corrosion and effectiveness of cathodic protection of pipelines[J]. Canadian Metallurgical Quarterly,2013,51:81-90.
【27】DAI M,LIU J,HUANG F,et al. Effect of cathodic protection potential fluctuations on pitting corrosion of X100 pipeline steel in acidic soil environment[J]. Corrosion Science,2018(8):40.
【28】VANAEI H R,ESLAMI A,EGBEWANDE A. A review on pipeline corrosion,in-line inspection (ILI),and corrosion growth rate models[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2017,149:43-54.
【29】封琼,张亚萍,汪洋,等. 基于埋地金属管道杂散电流的腐蚀与防护[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2017,38(2):91-95.
【30】张华兵. 基于失效库的在役天然气长输管道定量风险评价技术研究[D]. 北京:中国地质大学(北京),2013.
【31】MADSEN H O,KRENK S. Method of structural safety[M]. New Jersey:Englewood Cliffs Prentice Hall,1986.
【32】赵志峰. 长输管道腐蚀防护系统安全性动态评价方法研究[D]. 西安:西安科技大学,2017.
【33】张余,董绍华. 管道完整性管理的发展与腐蚀案例分析[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2012,33:125-130.
相关信息