以某成品油管道改线工程为例，辨识该管道改线工程的高后果区（HCAs），确定HCAs的危险等级；选取腐蚀、第3方破坏、误操作、本体因素和管理5个一级指标构建输油管道失效可能性评估指标体系，划分3个管段，运用博弈论赋权法计算各指标权重，确定该管道失效可能性；借助CFD软件分析管道泄漏后油蒸汽扩散规律。结果表明：该管道改线工程HCAs等级整体处于Ⅱ级，管段2失效可能性较大，造成管道失效的主要因素为第3方破坏和腐蚀，随着风速增大油蒸汽的扩散范围变大但含量减小。评估结果与实际情况相符合，为管道改线工程风险评估应用研究提供了一定依据。

According to a refined oil pipeline rerouting project, identified the high consequence area (HCAs) of the pipeline rerouting project and determined the risk level of HCAs. The evaluation index system of failure probability of oil pipeline was established by selecting five first level indexes:corrosion, third-party damage, misoperation, ontology factor and management. Three segments of the pipeline were divided, and the weight of each index was calculated by game theory weighting method to determine the failure probability of the pipeline. With the help of CFD software, the rule of oil vapor diffusion after pipeline leakage was analyzed. The results show that the HCAs grade of the pipeline rerouting project was in grade II as a whole, and the pipeline segment 2 was more likely to fail. The main causes of pipeline failure were the third-party damage and corrosion. With the increase of wind speed, the diffusion range of oil vapor increase, but the content decrease. The assessment results were in accordance with the actual situation, which provided a certain basis for the application of risk assessment of pipeline rerouting project.