Extrapolation of 100 000 h Rupture Strength of P91 Steel Pipe Based on Confidence and Survival Probability
摘 要
对国内某钢厂生产的P91钢管,在试验温度625 ℃、应力80~140 MPa范围内进行了7个应力水平的持久强度试验,对每一应力对应的破断时间进行一元线性回归,并对结果进行相关系数检验,外推得到基于一定置信度和存活概率的100 000 h持久强度。结果表明:试验温度为625 ℃时,在置信度γ为95%、存活概率为99. 9%条件下,外推得到该P91钢管100 000 h的持久强度为71. 38 MPa;随着破断时间的延长,同一应力下不同破断时间的标准差逐渐降低,推测与蠕变机制的变化有关。
Abstract
The endurance strength test at 625 ℃ and seven stress levels with stress ranging from 80 MPa to 140 MPa were conducted on the P91 steel pipes produced by a steel plant in China. The unary linear regression of the breaking time under each stress was carried out, and the correlation coefficient of the results were checked. Finally, the 100 000 h endurance strength based on a certain confidence and survival probability was extrapolated. The results show that when the test temperature was 625 ℃, and the confidence γ was 95% and the survival probability was 99. 9%, extrapolated the 100 000 h endurance strength of P91 steel pipe was 71. 38 MPa. With the extension of the breaking time, the standard deviation of different fracture times under the same stress decreased gradually, which may be related to the change of creep mechanism.
中图分类号 TB302.3 DOI 10.11973/lhjy-wl202109002
所属栏目 试验与研究
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收稿日期 2021/5/28
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备注孙晓翔(1983-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事锅炉失效分析和耐热钢的研究工作
引用该论文: SUN Xiaoxiang,WANG Xue,WANG Weilian,TONG Zequan. Extrapolation of 100 000 h Rupture Strength of P91 Steel Pipe Based on Confidence and Survival Probability[J]. Physical Testing and Chemical Analysis part A:Physical Testing, 2021, 57(9): 5~10
孙晓翔,王学,王维廉,童泽全. 基于置信度和存活概率的P91钢管100 000 h持久强度的外推[J]. 理化检验-物理分册, 2021, 57(9): 5~10
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【3】XIAO B, XU L Y, CAYRON C, et al. Solute-dislocation interactions and creep-enhanced Cu precipitation in a novel ferritic-martensitic steel[J]. Acta Materialia, 2020, 195:199-208.
【4】田晓, 秦承鹏, 徐慧, 等.某超超临界锅炉一级过热器T91钢吊挂管泄漏原因分析[J].理化检验(物理分册), 2020, 56(1):56-60.
【5】杨平, 张健.630 MW超临界锅炉高温过热器管爆管原因[J].理化检验(物理分册), 2021, 57(5):66-70.
【6】胡正飞. 马氏体耐热钢的应用研究与评价[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2018.
【7】DYSON B. Use of CDM in materials modeling and component creep life prediction[J]. Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology, 2000, 122(3):281-296.
【8】陈云翔, 严伟, 胡平, 等. T/P91钢在高应力条件下蠕变行为的CDM模型模拟[J]. 金属学报, 2011, 47(11):1372-1377.
【9】张建龙, 薛河, 鲁元. Super304H/T92奥氏体耐热钢摩擦焊焊接接头持久强度及断裂行为[J]. 材料导报, 2019, 33(12):2067-2070.
【10】占刚, 季小红. 某亚临界机组四大管道寿命评估分析[J]. 中国特种设备安全, 2019, 35(8):37-40.
【11】陈传尧. 疲劳与断裂[M]. 武汉:华中科技大学出版社, 2002.
【12】SPIGARELLI S, CERRI E, BIANCHI P, et al. Interpretation of creep behaviour of a 9Cr-Mo-Nb-V-N (T91) steel using threshold stress concept[J]. Materials Science and Technology, 1999, 15(12):1433-1440.
【13】KLOC L, SKIENIČKA V, VENTRUBA J. Comparison of low stress creep properties of ferritic and austenitic creep resistant steels[J]. Materials Science and Engineering:A, 2001, 319/320/321:774-778.
【14】KIMURA K, KUSHIMA H, SAWADA K. Long-term creep deformation property of modified 9Cr-1Mo steel[J]. Materials Science and Engineering:A, 2009, 510/511:58-63.
【15】SCHRÖDER J H, ARZT E. Weak beam studies of dislocation/dispersoid interaction in an ods superalloy[J]. Scripta Metallurgica, 1985, 19(9):1129-1134.
【16】COOPER G A. Strengthening methods in crystals[J]. Composites, 1971, 2(4):252-256.
【17】SHEWFELT R S W, BROWN L M. High-temperature strength of dispersion-hardened single crystals Ⅱ. Theory[J]. Philosophical Magazine, 1977, 35(4):945-962.
【18】LUND R W, NIX W D. High temperature creep of Ni-20Cr-2ThO2 single crystals[J]. Acta Metallurgica, 1976, 24(5):469-481.
【19】PHARR G M, NIX W D. A comparison of the Orowan stress with the threshold stress for creep for Ni-20Cr-2ThO2 single crystals[J]. Scripta Metallurgica, 1976, 10(11):1007-1010.
【20】HERRING C. Diffusional viscosity of a polycrystalline solid[J]. Journal of Applied Physics, 1950, 21(5):437-445.
【21】COBLE R L. A model for boundary diffusion controlled creep in polycrystalline materials[J]. Journal of Applied Physics, 1963, 34(6):1679-1682.
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