基于正态分布的腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测方法
Remaining Life Prediction Method of Corroded Pipeline Based on Normal Distribution
摘 要
由于常规的腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测方法存在过度保守和缺乏合理性的问题,分析了内检测数据中系统测量误差和随机误差的来源和特点,确定了内检测数据调整方法。基于正态分布原理建立了管道缺陷生长速率计算模型,采用95%上限分位数对应的生长速率预测含缺陷管道的剩余寿命,该方法同时考虑了维修计划的保守性和合理性。结合典型工程案例对剩余寿命预测结果进行对比分析,发现改进后的剩余寿命预测方法有助于建立更加科学合理的维护响应策略,提升管道运营效率。
生长速率
数据误差
正态分布
剩余寿命预测
inline inspection
growth rate
data error
normal distribution
remaining life prediction
Abstract
Bue to the excessive conservatism and insufficient validity in the traditional methodology of remaining life prediction for corroded pipeline, sources and characteristics of systematic measurement bias and random error in the internal inspection datas were analyzed, and the relevant solution of internal inspection data correction was determined. Based on the theory of normal distribution, the growth rate calculation model was established, and the growth rate corresponding to the 95% upper limit quantile was used to predict the remaining life of the pipeline with defects. This method considered the conservation and rationality of maintenance plan. The residual life prediction results were compared and analyzed with typical engineering cases. It was found that the improved residual life prediction method could be helpful to establish a more scientific and reasonable maintenance response strategy and to improve the efficiency of pipeline operation.
中图分类号 TE832 DOI 10.11973/fsyfh-202303015
所属栏目 应用技术
基金项目
收稿日期 2021/5/7
修改稿日期
网络出版日期
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引用该论文: LIU Chenglei,YANG Jing,ZHU Ming,ZHANG Chang,GUAN Zhe,XIAO Ningjin. Remaining Life Prediction Method of Corroded Pipeline Based on Normal Distribution[J]. Corrosion & Protection, 2023, 44(3): 100
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参考文献
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【7】林现喜,张克政,陈剑健,等. 油气长输管道腐蚀速率计算方法评述[J]. 油气储运,2016,35(2):192-197.
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【10】姜晓红,洪险峰,刘争,等. 管道内检测数据对比对完整性评价的影响[J]. 油气储运,2016,35(1):28-31.
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