Research on Analysis and Prediction Method of Thermal Power Engineering Cost
摘 要
以火电600 MW无脱硝机组为例,对“十五”与“十一五”期间火电机组的造价变化进行了研究,并由此提出造价预测方法,对“十二五”期间火电工程造价进行了预测。影响火电工程造价的因素按照与市场的相关程度划分为三类,通过分析发现,新增火电装机容量与电力市场强相关因素存在密切关联,且直接影响工程造价的变化。从预测结果来看,“十二五”期间火电造价水平将经历先下跌再回升的过程,其中2012年的造价水平是最低的,整体波动幅度在3%以内。
Abstract
In this article, the “600 MW non-denitration power plant” was adopted for instance, through the analysis of the variation of its cost during the 11th and 12th Five Year Plan, the main facts were extracted to develop the prediction of cost during the 12th Five Year Plan. The constitution of cost was divided into three categories of factors depending on the correlation degree with power market, and it was found that the added installed thermal power generating capacity had close relationship with the factor which was called “power industry strongly related factor”, and it directly affected the change of cost. According to the predicted results, the cost level would fall first and then rise through the process, which in 2012 reached the lowest point, the overall volatility rated within 3%.
中图分类号 TM611
所属栏目 发电技术
基金项目
收稿日期 2014/7/9
修改稿日期
网络出版日期
作者单位点击查看
备注易超(1984-),男,工程师,工学博士,从事电力工程造价与电力技术经济工作。
引用该论文: Yi Chao,Zhang Jian,Yang Qingxue,Ye Ziwan. Research on Analysis and Prediction Method of Thermal Power Engineering Cost[J]. Power & Energy, 2014, 35(5): 600~605
易超,张健,杨庆学,叶子菀. 火电工程造价分析与预测方法研究[J]. 电力与能源, 2014, 35(5): 600~605
共有人对该论文发表了看法,其中:
人认为该论文很差
人认为该论文较差
人认为该论文一般
人认为该论文较好
人认为该论文很好
参考文献
【1】电力规划设计总院.火电工程限额设计参考造价指标[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2001-2012.
【2】国家能源局.火力发电工程建设预算编制与计算规定(2013版)[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2013.
【3】国家电力监管委员会.“十一五”期间投产电力工程项目造价情况[R].北京:中国电力出版社,2013.
【4】人力资源和社会保障部.人力资源和社会保障事业发展“十二五”规划纲要[R].人社部发〔2011〕71号,2011.
【5】中国电力企业联合会.电力工业“十二五”规划研究报告[R].北京:中国电力出版社,2012.
【2】国家能源局.火力发电工程建设预算编制与计算规定(2013版)[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2013.
【3】国家电力监管委员会.“十一五”期间投产电力工程项目造价情况[R].北京:中国电力出版社,2013.
【4】人力资源和社会保障部.人力资源和社会保障事业发展“十二五”规划纲要[R].人社部发〔2011〕71号,2011.
【5】中国电力企业联合会.电力工业“十二五”规划研究报告[R].北京:中国电力出版社,2012.
相关信息