Frechet分布的海底油气管道腐蚀预测
Corrosion Forecast of Offshore Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Frechet Distribution
摘 要
应用Frechet极值分布建立管道最大腐蚀深度预测模型，然后用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）方法估计预测模型的参数值，通过模型预测出可能的最大腐蚀深度，并结合钢质管道管体腐蚀损伤评价方法和马尔科夫链模型对管壁腐蚀的最大概率状态进行分析和预测，实现对海底油气管道腐蚀现状和运行情况的科学评价和预测。结果表明：管道腐蚀进入状态3以后，腐蚀速率加快，在管道运行到第10年时，就需要更换新管。该组合模型能够很好地预测油气管道的最大腐蚀深度和腐蚀状况，从而为合理确定管道的检测、维护、维修和更换周期提供科学的依据。
Frechet分布
最大腐蚀深度
马尔科夫链
预测
pitting
Frechet distribution
maximum depth of corrosion pit
Markov chain
forecast
Abstract
Frechet extreme distribution was used to establish for the maximum depth of corrosion pit, the values of parameters in the forecast model were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. By combining with the evaluation method of corrosion damage of steel pipelines and Markov chain model, forecasted maximum corrosion depths of pipelines, the maximum probability state of pipeline wall corrosion was analyzed and forecasted, so that the scientific evaluation and forecast on corrosion status and operation condition of offshore oil and gas pipelines could be realized. The results show that the corrosion rate will be accelerated when the pipeline enters the third state, when the pipeline runs to the tenth years, it will need to be replaced with a new tube. The combination model can well forecast the maximum depth of corrosion pit and the corrosion situation of offshore oil and gas pipelines, and provide a scientific basis for maintenance, repair and detection of the offshore pipelines.
中图分类号 TG174 DOI 10.11973/fsyfh-201703012
所属栏目 应用技术
基金项目 国家自然科学基金（61271278）；陕西省重点学科建设专项资金（E08001）；陕西省教育厅自然科学基金
收稿日期 2016/7/2
修改稿日期
网络出版日期
作者单位点击查看
引用该论文: LUO Zheng-shan,WANG Rui,BI Ao-rui. Corrosion Forecast of Offshore Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Frechet Distribution[J]. Corrosion & Protection, 2017, 38(3): 214
共有人对该论文发表了看法，其中：
人认为该论文很差
人认为该论文较差
人认为该论文一般
人认为该论文较好
人认为该论文很好
参考文献
【1】穆龙新,潘校华,田作基,等. 中国石油公司海外油气资源战略[J]. 石油学报,2013,34(5):1023-1030.
【2】张抗. 依靠自主设备开发深海油气[J]. 石油学报,2013,34(4):802-808.
【3】GUNTER S,MICHAEL S,GEORGE F H,et al. Global needs for knowledge dissemination,research,and development in materials deterioration and corrosion control[R]. The World Corrosion:[s.n.],2009.
【4】蒋宏业,姚安林,蒋长春,等. 基于AHP的埋地输气管道腐蚀风险评价[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2011,32(2):121-124.
【5】程浩力,吕仁军,姜炜,等. 基于Excel的GM(1,1)模型在预测油气管道腐蚀速率中的应用[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2014,35(4):378-380.
【6】陈典斌,韩东霏,马俊英,等. 基于VB/GM(1,1)/MATLAB的腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测及结构可靠度分析[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2015,36(2):197-205.
【7】王海涛,孔明慧. 三次指数平滑法预测管道腐蚀速率的应用[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2016,37(1):8-11.
【8】孙宝财,李淑欣,俞树荣,等. 改进BP算法的腐蚀管道剩余强度预测[J]. 中国腐蚀与防护学报,2011,31(5):404-408.
【9】MOHD H M,BYEONG J L,CUI Y S,et al. Residual strength of corroded subsea pipelines subject to combined internal pressure and bending moment[J]. Ships and Offshore Structures,2015,10(5):554-564.
【10】TEIXEIRA A P,SOARES C G,NETTO T A,et al. Reliability of pipelines with corrosion defects[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessel and Piping,2008,85(4):228-237.
【11】CALEYO F,GONZALE J L,HALLEN J M. A study on the reliability assessment methodology for pipelines with active corrosion defect[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessel and Piping,2002,79(1):77-86.
【12】王蕾,李帆. 埋地钢质燃气管道点蚀数据的概率统计分析[J]. 煤气与热力,2004,24(12):657-659.
【13】王水勇,任爱. 利用Gumbel极值分布预测管道最大腐蚀深度[J]. 腐蚀科学与防护技术,2008,20(5):358-360.
【14】宋宜四,高万夫,李发根. 极值理论应用于埋地管道土壤腐蚀坑深研究[J]. 油气储运,2009,28(1):33-35.
【15】TANIGUCHI N,SUZUKIL H,KAWASAKI M,et al. Propagation behavior of general and localised corrosion of carbon steel in simulated groundwater under aerobic conditions[J]. Corrosion Engineering,Science and Technology,2011,46(2):117-123.
【16】ALAMILLA J L,ESPINOSA-MEDINA M A,SOSA E. Modeling steel corrosion damage in soil environment[J]. Corrosion Science,2009,51:2628-2638.
【17】JIAN S,HAN K. The remaining life prediction and internal inspection interval analysis for large-scale crude oil storage tank[C]//Proceedings of the Biennial International Pipeline Conference,IPC2010. New York:American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2010:241-246.
【18】ROBERT E M. Extreme value statistics and long-term marine pitting corrosion of steel[J]. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,2008,23(4):482-488.
【19】CALEYO F,VELAZQUEZ J C,VALOR A,et al. Probability distribution of pitting corrosion depth and rate in underground pipelines:A Monte Carlo study[J]. Corrosion Science,2009,51(9):1925-1934.
【2】张抗. 依靠自主设备开发深海油气[J]. 石油学报,2013,34(4):802-808.
【3】GUNTER S,MICHAEL S,GEORGE F H,et al. Global needs for knowledge dissemination,research,and development in materials deterioration and corrosion control[R]. The World Corrosion:[s.n.],2009.
【4】蒋宏业,姚安林,蒋长春,等. 基于AHP的埋地输气管道腐蚀风险评价[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2011,32(2):121-124.
【5】程浩力,吕仁军,姜炜,等. 基于Excel的GM(1,1)模型在预测油气管道腐蚀速率中的应用[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2014,35(4):378-380.
【6】陈典斌,韩东霏,马俊英,等. 基于VB/GM(1,1)/MATLAB的腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测及结构可靠度分析[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2015,36(2):197-205.
【7】王海涛,孔明慧. 三次指数平滑法预测管道腐蚀速率的应用[J]. 腐蚀与防护,2016,37(1):8-11.
【8】孙宝财,李淑欣,俞树荣,等. 改进BP算法的腐蚀管道剩余强度预测[J]. 中国腐蚀与防护学报,2011,31(5):404-408.
【9】MOHD H M,BYEONG J L,CUI Y S,et al. Residual strength of corroded subsea pipelines subject to combined internal pressure and bending moment[J]. Ships and Offshore Structures,2015,10(5):554-564.
【10】TEIXEIRA A P,SOARES C G,NETTO T A,et al. Reliability of pipelines with corrosion defects[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessel and Piping,2008,85(4):228-237.
【11】CALEYO F,GONZALE J L,HALLEN J M. A study on the reliability assessment methodology for pipelines with active corrosion defect[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessel and Piping,2002,79(1):77-86.
【12】王蕾,李帆. 埋地钢质燃气管道点蚀数据的概率统计分析[J]. 煤气与热力,2004,24(12):657-659.
【13】王水勇,任爱. 利用Gumbel极值分布预测管道最大腐蚀深度[J]. 腐蚀科学与防护技术,2008,20(5):358-360.
【14】宋宜四,高万夫,李发根. 极值理论应用于埋地管道土壤腐蚀坑深研究[J]. 油气储运,2009,28(1):33-35.
【15】TANIGUCHI N,SUZUKIL H,KAWASAKI M,et al. Propagation behavior of general and localised corrosion of carbon steel in simulated groundwater under aerobic conditions[J]. Corrosion Engineering,Science and Technology,2011,46(2):117-123.
【16】ALAMILLA J L,ESPINOSA-MEDINA M A,SOSA E. Modeling steel corrosion damage in soil environment[J]. Corrosion Science,2009,51:2628-2638.
【17】JIAN S,HAN K. The remaining life prediction and internal inspection interval analysis for large-scale crude oil storage tank[C]//Proceedings of the Biennial International Pipeline Conference,IPC2010. New York:American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2010:241-246.
【18】ROBERT E M. Extreme value statistics and long-term marine pitting corrosion of steel[J]. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,2008,23(4):482-488.
【19】CALEYO F,VELAZQUEZ J C,VALOR A,et al. Probability distribution of pitting corrosion depth and rate in underground pipelines:A Monte Carlo study[J]. Corrosion Science,2009,51(9):1925-1934.
相关信息
